Why Gold Shine Again?
Almost every day in a week after record highs on Friday, China's National Day, which is commonly known as the October "Golden Week" the first day, the international market, spot gold hit a record high of $ 1,320.80 an ounce. Earlier this year the price has risen over 18%, compared with the same period last year rose more than 33%. That night, I and a high school classmate and old friend in Shanghai Xintiandi, a name, there are "GOLDEN" heated debate in the word dessert gold prospects. I found that just more than a month gone, he has become a truly a "gold bug" the. It is said that he is gradually put their savings and investment turned into gold, the reasons for the future, "Save the purchasing power." Indeed, into the century, gold has been in a bull market, and with the global financial crisis, the 2008 peak. Statistics show that since early 2008, gold compared to other major asset classes appears to stand out as much as 58% appreciation over the same period rose only 16% of copper, oil fell 15% against. Especially in recent months, the price of gold stacked high, the rise of a wave of significant domestic and international gold investment. In addition to investment only through the market, investors are increasingly looking to the form of gold coins and gold bullion held by real gold, my classmate who seems to have intended to do so. Thus, some of the world warehousing companies have upgraded equipment and facilities; in the United States Mint, Buffalo gold coins from the pure gold has been sold out. In order to profit from rising demand, some gold coins wholesalers increased premium. Even the calm of the analyst in predicting the price of gold is also starting a time, not far behind. Calyon last week to three months from the $ 1,260 gold price is expected to raised $ 1,350; Deutsche Bank said on Tuesday that the price of gold in 2012 reached $ 1,600 an ounce is not impossible, it hit $ 2,000 before that is not in bubble; the world's leading investment institutions, a senior Blackstone said on Wednesday that if the dollar-based real terms according to the price of gold from its January 1980 high point is still far away, when adjusted for inflation if the record is about an ounce $ 2,200; JP Morgan analysts told clients, we will tell you how to intervene in the gold some caution, but to be honest, gold is an asset you have held, but we do expect the price of gold next year, will further rise ... ... the most interesting is that Capital Economics, a research firm in London, chief international economist Julian Jessop. Two months ago, he was also the one who look empty, had predicted that gold will fall to the end of the year 1000 U.S. dollars an ounce. But last week he suddenly changed his mind, in the latest research report that because of the dollar can not control inflation or collapse of deep concern, now he expects gold will remain high in a few years. The world's largest gold producer, Barrick Gold confidently predicted that gold prices next year will be "easy" break through $ 1,500. Actually, I did not put the price of gold means. I debate with friends just want to express such a view: the experience of the past few decades have shown that impact of the dollar gold price is almost the only determining factor, both showed a high degree of negative correlation. Gold against inflation and the economic crisis has not been a class than the other kind of investment goods showed a better performance, support the theory of the gold value, not as certain domestic financial commentators imagine, the discovery is nothing new. Historically, as long as the economic crisis or downturn, gold and "golden priceless theory" will shine. Therefore, we Chinese people are used to keep gold as an auspicious item, but in fact, gold's popular often just reflects the economic downturn. As for the acceleration of the price of gold in recent weeks to rally, I think that in addition to the traditional hedging considerations, the more the market exchange rate for the impending war made the world a foreboding and response. We see that the U.S. House of Representatives last week approved a punitive exchange rate against the bill, opening the curtain exchange rate war and trade war. Earlier, Japan gave up has been implemented for 6 years do not intervene in foreign exchange policy, selling the value of 200 billion yen, trying to curb the appreciation of the momentum. While this flavor is very strong protectionist policies have been subjected in the first of many international organizations - including the European Union - strongly criticized by many economists, but also means not to be effective, but as a G8 member, Japan This is a benchmark of the means of. Japan claimed that the reason for apparently applies to many other countries. And several other East Asian countries, next month's G20 summit host - South Korea's currency intervention has intermittently to suppress the won exchange rate. In addition, there are at least five or six countries are taking similar measures to actively suppress the local currency exchange rate moves to enhance their trade competitiveness, including Switzerland, Colombia, Thailand. Brazilian Finance Minister Guido? Mantega (Guido Mantega) on Monday (Sept. 27) open in Sao Paulo said: "We are in a war in which international exchange rate ... ..." Root said, the Brazilian currency, the real has l to the highest level since last December, against the U.S. dollar has risen more than 30%, a serious threat to Brazil's exports. Of course, loudly accusing others of its own did not hesitate to join the international chorus of exchange rate intervention - in the past few weeks, most of the day, Brazil's central bank to buy up to $ 1,000,000,000 per day. Monday it announced that foreign investment in domestic bonds will be doubled to 4% of the tax rate to curb currency appreciation. In the current round of "devaluation race", the Fed continued to play the leading role. Although it is highly unlikely as the Japanese monetary authorities to implement as direct intervention in the foreign exchange market, but it is still fully support the weaker dollar, means that is continuous quantitative easing. European Central Bank also followed. Therefore, the Nobel laureate in economics Joseph Stiglitz on Tuesday accused the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, said they introduced the world's super-loose monetary policy will push the "chaos" rather than to promote global economic recovery. And said that in addition to the move triggered unrest elsewhere in the world outside of the U.S. economy any good. Can be seen, there hides a deeper international market for the total collapse of the current international monetary system concerns - if the U.S. system is really the end, and the new "world currency" short-term are also affected by dystocia, it is possible to return to the gold standard in international trade, By then, almost do not have any industrial uses of gold and reliable than anything else will (of course there are other precious metals such as silver and so on. Recently, their prices are also soaring all the way.) Perhaps out of a distant and vague it a rainy day, has recently had several major central banks stop selling gold reserves. The World Gold Council, a managing director of government affairs, told Reuters, Russia, China and the Philippines will continue to use the central bank's dollar reserves on hand to buy more gold to increase gold holdings, balance reserve assets. Of course, this is further pushing up the international price of gold. Wednesday (Oct. 6), the price of gold in the 10 trading days, the record eighth time, was almost rose above $ 1,350 an ounce. This is obviously due to a weaker dollar and expectations of further Fed easing may be introduced to stimulate economic growth. Even so, some people still do not bullish on gold, this person is the famous international speculators Soros. February this year he warned the World Economic Forum in Davos, the gold market has been "caught in the bubble",Christian Louboutin Pumps when the spot gold price of less than $ 1,150 an ounce. Late last month, investor George Soros reiterated his warning, and that gold has fallen into the "ultimate bubble" in the current difficult market conditions, holders of gold "definitely unsafe." However, surprising is that his own hedge fund - Soros Fund Management is the international market this year, long one of the largest gold. October 1st night,Christian Louboutin Sandals I and middle school students say goodbye in the drizzle. He asked me: Is that how you look at the price of gold bubble? I said to him: I think the correct formulation of this question should be: How do you really think the U.S. dollar and U.S. dollar system of the future fate?